This chart plots the fluctuations between the soymeal price on the Chicago Board of Trade and the bulk deld Cheshire price of 48% Brazilian soymeal/pelets. As you can see fluctuations in the freight & forex markets, as well as changes in the difference between cash & futures prices (the basis) mean that the two don't mirror each other exactly. The steep drops that you see in some years around April is when we switch from plotting the current winter run to the new forward winter position.
Paris Rapeseed Vs Rapemeal Deld Cheshire
This chart plots the fluctuations between the rapeseed price in Paris and the bulk deld Cheshire price of rapemeal. As you can see there's quite a disparity between the two, particularly when the pound was much weaker against the euro than it is now. Again, the steep drops that you see in some years around April is when we switch from plotting the current winter run to the new forward winter position.
Brazilian 48% Soymeal/Pels Vs Rapemeal Deld Cheshire
This chart plots the fluctuations between the bulk deld Cheshire price of 48% Brazilian soymeal/pelets and rapemeal. Although there is clearly a relationship between the two there are also occasions when one commodity offers particular value when compared to the other. Once more, the sometimes steep drop around April is due to switching to plotting different winter runs.
Rapemeal Deld Cheshire As A Percentage Of Brazilian 48% Soymeal/Pels
This chart plots deld Cheshire rapemeal as a percentage of the price of 48% Brazilian soymeal/pellets deld Cheshire. There is a strong historical precedent that rapemeal at around 65% of the value of soymeal/pellets is the norm. As you can see though there are times when the rate has been above 70%, and other occasions in the last twelve months when the rate has been under 60%.
In the coming 2015/16 season however, I think it is possible that we could see rapemeal break out of this historical trend to the upside, trading consistently within a range of 70-75% of the price of soymeal/pellets (and quite possibly even higher) due to a sharply lower world rapeseed crop in 2015, with output in the EU, Canada, Ukraine and Australia all seen falling significantly. The EU will consume almost 26 MMT of rapeseed in 2014/15, according to the USDA. Yet production here in 2015 is estimated by them to fall to only 22 MMT, and some other analysts think maybe as low as 21 MMT, meaning that the EU crush could be lowered substantially resulting in reduced meal availability in the marketplace. On the continent we are already seeing some crushers, unable to source rapeseed, switching their operation to process soybeans and/or sunflowers/other oilseeds instead.
| www.rupertstafford.com | T:
01829 262 270 M: 07711 217 791 |